Who still buys
Who gets a mortgage now, compared with 2019?
From the purchase subset of the HMDA extract: the median purchase borrower's income as a ratio of the metro median household income by year, the share of purchase loans to borrowers under 35, the share with income above twice the metro median, the median property value to borrower income, and the rate spread distribution. Intervals are by bootstrap over lenders. The denial question is not asked; fair lending is another build, and the statement says so.
The buyer is richer than in 2019 by +0.15 of the local median income (interval +0.12 to +0.19) and, against the claim, slightly younger: the under 35 share rose +1.2 pts (interval +0.1 pts to +2.3 pts) by 2025. The ratio moved most in Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim +0.44; Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach +0.37; New York-Newark-Jersey City +0.30.
Purchase borrower income over the local median, and the share of buyers under 35, by year, with lender bootstrap intervals
Borrower income over the metro median
ratio
Buyers under 35
share of purchase loans
real:hmda+acs
By year
| Year | Loans | Lenders | Income ratio | Low | High | Under 35 | Above twice the median | Value to income | Spread p50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 3,389,103 | 5,148 | 1.28x | 1.25x | 1.32x | 38.4% | 22.7% | 3.38x | 0.44% |
| 2019 | 3,533,474 | 5,029 | 1.23x | 1.20x | 1.27x | 38.3% | 20.9% | 3.38x | 0.44% |
| 2020 | 3,861,776 | 4,164 | 1.24x | 1.22x | 1.28x | 40.7% | 21.4% | 3.62x | 0.31% |
| 2021 | 4,097,757 | 4,075 | 1.24x | 1.22x | 1.26x | 39.0% | 21.2% | 3.88x | 0.31% |
| 2022 | 3,317,262 | 4,160 | 1.32x | 1.30x | 1.35x | 38.9% | 23.8% | 3.62x | 0.31% |
| 2023 | 2,664,039 | 4,605 | 1.38x | 1.35x | 1.40x | 39.8% | 25.5% | 3.38x | 0.19% |
| 2024 | 2,695,601 | 4,433 | 1.36x | 1.33x | 1.38x | 39.7% | 25.1% | 3.38x | 0.19% |
| 2025 | 2,722,577 | 4,341 | 1.39x | 1.37x | 1.41x | 39.4% | 26.7% | 3.38x | 0.19% |
Source: HMDA extract beside the census incomes (real); model: bootstrap; population: every purchase loan on a principal residence in the extract, 2018 to 2025 (2,722,577 loans from 4,341 lenders in 2025); as of 2026-10-23.
The largest metros
The borrower income ratio in 2019 and 2025 with the lender bootstrap interval, and the share of buyers under 35.
| Metro | Ratio 2019 | Ratio 2025 | Low | High | Change | Under 35 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ | 1.47x | 1.78x | 1.73x | 1.88x | +0.30 | 36.4% |
| Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | 1.35x | 1.37x | 1.27x | 1.48x | +0.03 | 38.3% |
| Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN | 1.16x | 1.29x | 1.24x | 1.35x | +0.13 | 40.5% |
| Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX | 1.34x | 1.44x | 1.38x | 1.57x | +0.11 | 37.9% |
| Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA | 1.15x | 1.27x | 1.22x | 1.33x | +0.12 | 35.2% |
| Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | 1.14x | 1.30x | 1.25x | 1.36x | +0.16 | 37.5% |
| Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | 1.06x | 1.25x | 1.21x | 1.29x | +0.18 | 34.5% |
| Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD | 1.17x | 1.35x | 1.29x | 1.40x | +0.17 | 41.1% |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | 1.77x | 2.20x | 2.10x | 2.36x | +0.44 | 30.2% |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | 1.05x | 1.15x | 1.15x | 1.20x | +0.10 | 43.7% |
| Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI | 1.14x | 1.28x | 1.21x | 1.34x | +0.13 | 44.3% |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | 1.45x | 1.83x | 1.71x | 1.89x | +0.37 | 29.2% |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | 1.34x | 1.44x | 1.37x | 1.50x | +0.10 | 33.8% |
| Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 1.25x | 1.53x | 1.45x | 1.62x | +0.29 | 38.7% |
| Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | 1.30x | 1.46x | 1.38x | 1.51x | +0.17 | 38.5% |
| Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO | 1.14x | 1.32x | 1.27x | 1.37x | +0.18 | 40.8% |
| Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | 1.24x | 1.43x | 1.37x | 1.48x | +0.18 | 38.2% |
| Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | 1.30x | 1.57x | 1.51x | 1.57x | +0.26 | 34.8% |
| San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | 1.32x | 1.31x | 1.18x | 1.44x | -0.01 | 40.3% |
| St. Louis, MO-IL | 1.17x | 1.19x | 1.13x | 1.25x | +0.03 | 44.1% |
Source: HMDA extract beside the census incomes (real); model: bootstrap; population: every purchase loan on a principal residence in the extract, 2018 to 2025 (2,722,577 loans from 4,341 lenders in 2025); as of 2026-10-23.
The extract and the rounding rules, in plain words
The extract holds originated loans (action taken 1) for home purchase, refinance and cash out refinance (loan purposes 1, 31 and 32) from the public snapshot files, 2018 to 2025; at ingest the rows are narrowed to principal residences, and reverse mortgages, open end lines and business purpose loans are flagged. This page reads the purchase subset only. The lenders report income in thousands of dollars, the loan amount and the property value at the midpoint of their reporting bins, and the applicant age in bands; the chapter reads histograms per lender in five thousand dollar bins, so no loan row is ever held by the site and the median is exact to the bin.
Spread: p10 -0.69%, p50 0.19%, p90 1.06% in 2025. Plan 5714fb93ae481cb1. bootstrap over lenders within year, 400 replicates.
What the housing economist would push back on
The HMDA income is the income the lender used, not the household's; a co-borrower or a self employed buyer is reported differently by different lenders, which is why the interval resamples lenders. The ratio compares buyers with the metro median household in the nearest census year, and the census has no 2020 release, so 2020 loans are compared with 2019 incomes. The purchase subset leaves out buyers who paid cash, who are the richest buyers of all.